Nintendo Switch 2 will hit 4.3 million units sold in the US in its first year, according to analyst

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The PS5 is still expected to outsell it

Nintendo Switch
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  • Nintendo Switch 2 is expected to sell 4.3 million units in the US in its first year
  • That's according to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella
  • Piscatella also expects the PS5 to outsell Switch 2 in the US in 2025

It seems the PS5 is still expected to outsell Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025 in the US. At least according to one trusted analyst.

This comes from Mat Piscatella, Circana's executive director and games industry analyst. In a Bluesky post, Piscatella outlined his expectations for Nintendo Switch 2 sales should the console launch in the first half of the year.

"Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch)," he wrote, "accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)."

Supply and demand are also likely to be a factor here, with Piscatella adding in a follow-up post that he expects "to see hardware constraints for several months after a significant early demand surge. And units sold will, of course, be dependent upon manufacturing capabilities and will."

In the same thread, Piscatella notes that he still expects Sony's PlayStation 5 to be the top-selling console in the US.

In terms of first-year sales, 4.3 million seems to be a pretty reasonable estimate when factoring in the original Nintendo Switch's performance. In 2017, US sales of the Switch totaled approximately 4.88 million units according to Statista. It also faced significant supply and demand issues at the time.

Furthermore, it's likely that the Nintendo Switch 2 isn't going to launch as early as March as the original Switch did. That said, given the abundance of leaks and rumors recently - including a potential Switch 2 mockup appearing at CES 2025 and an alleged leak of the console's logo - it's not absurd to think an official announcement will be made soon.

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Rhys Wood
Rhys Wood
Hardware Editor

Rhys is TRG's Hardware Editor, and has been part of the TechRadar team for more than two years. Particularly passionate about high-quality third-party controllers and headsets, as well as the latest and greatest in fight sticks and VR, Rhys strives to provide easy-to-read, informative coverage on gaming hardware of all kinds. As for the games themselves, Rhys is especially keen on fighting and racing games, as well as soulslikes and RPGs.