One in two cars will have an electric powertrain by 2030. While China is expected to lead the global adoption of EVs, India's numbers in the segment are predicted to be conservative. By 2030, the share of BEVs (battery electric vehicles) in China is expected to be around 54% and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) is projected to reach around 10.8%. On the other hand, the share of BEVs in India in 2030 is likely to be around a lowly 20.4% with the conventional ICE vehicles expected to dominate the proceedings with around 79.5% share.
This number of BEVs is less than what India is officially aiming to have --- 30% of its passenger vehicle sales as EVs by 2030. Homegrown players such as Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra Electric and a few foreign players like MG Motor and Hyundai are competing for the Indian passenger EV market.
Next-gen cars will be software-oriented
According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Passenger Vehicle Forecast, China will be followed by Europe and the US in EV adoption. Japan, however, is lagging in EV adoption compared to other developed countries.
The EV market in China is influenced by government policies. However, China has reduced subsidies on EVs by 30% in 2022 compared to 2021. April was the weakest month for EV sales in China this year. The EV sales in China are projected to cross six million units by the end of this year.
The report said Europe is aiming to reduce emission levels by 15% in 2025 and by 37.5% in 2030 from the 2021 levels. This is one of the major reasons for Europe’s EV sales to cross the two million mark in 2021, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. "More than 10 countries including Norway, Denmark, France, Germany, United Kingdom and Netherlands have proposed to phase out new sales of petrol and diesel cars. This will help Europe maintain its second position in the global EV market by 2030."
EV sales in the US increased by nearly 100% YoY in 2021. The US administration will provide $7.5 billion to build 0.5 million public EV charging stations. "We expect the battery electric vehicle (BEV) will account for nearly 30% market share in US passenger vehicle sales by 2030," according to the Counterpoint research.
EV adoption in Norway has already crossed 85% of sales in 2021 and it is expected to achieve 100% electrified passenger vehicle sales by 2025.
As next-gen cars will be much more software-driven, more new players will enter the market. Counterpoint's Associate Director Brady Wang said, "the EV market is getting more competitive as new companies, including smartphone ecosystem players, are entering the field. Companies such as Foxconn and Xiaomi have already announced their entry into the smart electric car field to diversify business opportunities. Sony has partnered with Honda to produce affordable EVs."
