Why not:
One lost BlackBerry customer doesn't necessarily mean one new Windows Phone customer - they might buy a Samsung Galaxy S3 or an iPhone. Microsoft is facing an uphill challenge here, even if RIM self-destructs.
The odds:
5/2. A lot depends on whether RIM can stop its nose-dive.
8. Mobile devices replace the PC
Why:
Mobile devices aren't just the punters' favourites: they're becoming businesses' favourites too.
According to Phil Redman at Gartner, "The era of the PC has ended. Employees are becoming more mobile and looking for ways to still be connected wherever work needs to be done."
Why not:
The PC era ain't over yet. We've got Windows 8; we've got ultrabooks; we've got those gorgeous new iMacs; we've got a Mac Pro coming... as much as we love our mobiles and tablets, we want PCs too.
The odds:
9/1. Mobile sales will outstrip PC ones next year, but most will supplement computers, not replace them.
9. Retailers will embrace NFC
Why:
The banks want it. The credit card companies want it. Most of the mobile makers want it. NFC is quick, convenient, saves you from having to mess around with plastic cards when you're buying a cup of coffee, and pretty much every phone maker bar Apple is on board.
Why not:
Recession-hit retailers are wary of splashing out on new NFC-enabled tills when it's unclear whether they'll get that money back.
In-app purchasing and alternative payment systems such as Square are stealing some of NFC's thunder. PayPal reckons it's a technology looking for a problem to solve, not a must-have for shops.
The odds:
7/2. We're not at the tipping point yet.
10. Apple will launch the Apple TV
Why:
It's currently the worst-kept secret in tech. Tim Cook says, "When I go into my living room and turn on the TV, I feel like I have gone backwards in time by 20 to 30 years", while winking, nudging and waving a flashing neon sign that says "HINT HINT HINT".
Why not:
While Cook says it's an area of intense interest, TV is a tough nut to crack: it's largely a licensing problem, rather than a technological one.
There's also the issue of price: any Apple TV set won't be cheap.
The odds:
5/2. Maybe 2012. Maybe not.
