- IDC has adjusted (reduced) its PC market forecast for 2025
- Windows 10 deprecation and AI PC effects aren’t strong enough
- 2025 predicted growth is 3.7%, compound AGR for 2025-2029 is just 0.4%
Despite the apparent resurgence of the PC market in recent months, analysts are increasingly concerned about the future as global trends and geopolitical troubles continue to affect the industry.
Responding to recent tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by the US, IDC has adjusted its forecast and reduced the market growth to just 3.7%.
“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs," noted Jitesh Ubrani, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers.
PC market faces more troubles
Separately, Canalys saw the market regain some of its seasonal trends while growing 3.9% for the whole calendar 2024.
Analysts there predict AI PCs could account for up to 35% of the market in 2025 – up from 23% in the final three months of 2024.
Canalys Analyst Kieren Jessop agrees with IDC: “looming trade policy shifts in the US threaten to disrupt the market that accounts for around one in three shipped PCs and could hamper the upcoming commercial refresh cycle and dampen an already muted consumer outlook.”
Jessop added: “So far, the Trump administration has placed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, which accounts for a significant majority of laptops shipped to the US.”
IDC is also concerned about the general consumer PC market, which grew just 2% in 2024. The company described the migration to Windows 11 as “modest” – the flagship OS only accounts for around 37% of all Windows installs (via Statcounter), compared with 60% for Windows 10.
Looking past calendar 2025, IDC is predicting annual growth rates of less than 1% up until 2029. Compound annual growth rate for 2025-2029 is predicted to average out at just 0.4%.
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