Smartphone shipments set to stall this year

(Image Credit: Huawei)

Gartner expects smartphone sales to fall slightly in 2019 but believes the market will return to growth in 2020, buoyed by the arrival of foldable devices and 5G handsets.

Analysts at the firm predict shipments will fall 0.5 per cent from 1.81 billion to 1.8 billion this year, before rising 1.2 per cent to 1.83 billion during the following 12 months. The figures are the latest in a series proclaiming modest or declining growth in the sector, fuelled by increasing prices, a perceived lack of innovation, and market saturation.

Gartner says vendors will have to get used to the fact consumers are holding onto their devices for longer, predicting the average lifetime of a high-end smartphone will extend from 2.6 years to 2.8 years by 2023.

Smartphone sales

“Users have reached a threshold for new technology and applications, which means that unless new models provide significant new utility, efficiency or experiences, users don’t want or need to upgrade,” said Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner. “As a result, we expect the high-end mobile phone market to continue to show a decline in mature markets during 2019.”

The first tranche of foldable handsets were revealed at Mobile World Congress (MWC) earlier this year. It is thought these will only attract a niche audience to begin with as vendors launch experimental devices to see how consumers use them in real-life situations, but could account for five per cent of the market by 2023.

“We expect that users will use a foldable phone as they do their regular smartphone, picking it up hundreds of times a day, unfolding it sporadically and typing on its plastic screen, which may scratch quickly depending on the way it folds,” added Cozza.

“Through the next five years, we expect foldable phones to remain a niche product due to several manufacturing challenges. In addition to the surface of the screen, the price is a barrier despite we expect to decline with time. Currently priced at $2,000, foldable phones present too many trade-offs, even for many early technology adopters.”

Steve McCaskill is TechRadar Pro's resident mobile industry expert, covering all aspects of the UK and global news, from operators to service providers and everything in between. He is a former editor of Silicon UK and journalist with over a decade's experience in the technology industry, writing about technology, in particular, telecoms, mobile and sports tech, sports, video games and media. 

Latest in Phone & Communications
GlocalMe KeyTracker
When I tested this global tracker, it trounced the Apple AirTag in so many ways
Privacy Hero II
I tested this secure router and the bundled year of VPN service feels mostly like a marketing exercise
ThinkPhone 25 by Motorola
I reviewed the ThinkPhone 25 by Motorola and while it's not as fast as its predecessor, it's the superior phone in so many ways
FRITZ!Box 7690 WiFi 7 Router
FRITZ!Box tries to embrace both business and home customers with its new 7690 router
Ulefone Armor Pad 4 Ultra Thermal
Other than screen reflection, I’m still looking for the downside to the Ulefone Armor Pad 4 Ultra Thermal tablet
Unihertz Tank Pad 8849
Carrying the Unihertz Tank Pad 8849 provided me with a full workout
Latest in News
Google Gemini Flash 2.0 Images
I tried Gemini's new AI image generation tool - here are 5 ways to get the best art from Google's Flash 2.0
An image of the Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra from a hands-on event
Samsung Galaxy S26 Ultra could resurrect an intriguing camera feature
Eurocom Raptor X18
At $15,000, this massive 256GB RAM laptop makes Apple's MacBook Pro look affordable, tiny and very, very slow
Cristin Milioti in Black Mirror season 7
Netflix launches trailer for Black Mirror season 7, giving us a look at its first-ever sequel episode and an unexpected returning character
A graphic of the PC Gaming Show
Get ready for a bounty of PC games on June 8, as the PC Gaming show is back
A close up of The Daily podcast from Pocket Casts' web page
‘Podcasting shouldn’t be locked behind walled gardens’: Pocket Casts slams Spotify and makes its web player free to all